Shuttles to complement public transit in developed markets and substitute it in emerging markets, finds Frost & Sullivan
LONDON, Aug. 21, 2018 /PRNewswire/ — As urban mobility is grappling with issues such as congestion, parking, and pollution, shared mobility modes are finding eager acceptance among commuters in different parts of the world. The concepts of multimodality and intermodality are expected to accelerate the demand-responsive transit (DRT) market from $2.8 billion in 2017 to $551.61 billion in 2030, at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 50.3 percent. Most of this growth is expected from Europe and China. Similarly, the fleet size is expected to expand from 24,100 units to 5.8 million at a CAGR of 52.6 percent during the same period, with Asia-Pacific accounting for more than 60 percent of this share.
“Smart city initiatives, new mobility policies, government mandates, and reduced private ownership of cars will result in DRT accounting for approximately 50 percent of the shared mobility market by 2030,” said Ankita Mukherji, Mobility Research Analyst at Frost & Sullivan. “As the DRT sector expands, the multiplying synergies between its key players and the public transit agencies and operators will help it grow at 75.9 percent between 2017 and 2030.”
Frost & Sullivan’s recent analysis, Strategic Analysis of the Global Demand-Responsive Transit (DRT) Market, Forecast to 2030, presents the trends in the service models of corporate shuttles, public shuttles (long-distance fixed, long-distance dynamic, short-distance fixed, short-distance dynamic), and chartered shuttles. By 2030, corporate shuttles and short-distance dynamic shuttles are expected to account for more than 60 percent of the DRT market.
“Demand-responsive shuttles are modelled such that they are complementary to public transit; hence, public-private partnerships will be vital to widen the market and direct resources effectively,” noted Mukherji. “As the demand-responsive shuttle model is asset heavy, OEMs could benefit from operating shuttles in partnership with other service providers or through their own custom-built technology platform.”
Demand-responsive shuttles successfully address key challenges in the traditional transit models by offering the price benefits of public transit and the convenience of single-occupancy modes such as taxis. This service model has found varying degrees of acceptance in the five main regions of the world:
- Europe: The biggest market for shared mobility; high level of participation from public transit agencies and bus operators.
- North America: Large number of players experimenting with business models; expected to see strong growth in the mid to long term.
- Asia-Pacific: One of the biggest markets currently; demand-responsive shuttles will continue to substitute public transport.
- Latin America: Modest growth potential; demand-responsive shuttles to compete with already existing shared modes of transport.
- Africa: Very small market; low to medium opportunities.
Strategic Analysis of the Global Demand-Responsive Transit (DRT) Market, Forecast to 2030 is part of Frost & Sullivan’s global Automotive & Transportation Growth Partnership Service program.